Semenov
Former Oiler Alexei Semenov has some magic going, either that or he is the luckiest bugger in the league.
There have been a few excellent posts at hockeynumbers lately, and this one is terrific, it shows the save percentage behind the league's players. Just for even strength of course. And Semenov kicks ass in this regard (.982). That means that when he was on the ice at even strength, the Panthers goalies had a save percentage of .982. That's only 2 goals against in limited action. To put that in perspective, when Semenov was on the ice at even strength, the Panther goalies were about three times more likely to make the save than Hasek in his prime would have. 3 x ... damn!.
Personally, I don't believe that skaters have much of an impact on shooting percentage (exception for cherry picking wingers, but even then ... ). But even if you do, I think you can agree that this is just plain luck for our man Alexei. I don't think we'd even get an argument out of his mother or agent on this one.
Personally, I think he's just not very good. I mean obviously he's better than me, he's playing in the NHL and I'm talking about him. But by NHL standards, he just isn't any hell in my opinion. Great in the skills competition, but terrifying in games if you're cheering for the team he's playing for.
I saw him in a NYI/FLA game late last year, and Panther Coach/GM Jacques Martin was terrified of playing him against Smyth/Robitaille/Blake. Whenever I noticed he was rolling Semi out there the one time when he was sure he wouldn't play them (just after they had left the ice). Of course I would never have paid attention if not for the fact he's an ex-Oiler and I was looking for him. But he is an ex-Oiler, I never fully let these guys go it seems. If you care to check, then play spot-the-pattern with the shift chart below. Smyth is the dark red bars and Semi is the green.
Now I'm probably guilty of putting too much stock in one game, but assuming that Semenov was healthy and that this was typical, well that says more than words ever could about Jacques' opinion of Alexei. If you're a defenceman and you're being rolled out there the "shift after Crosby" a whole bunch, and you're not bringing offense, and you're not 20 years old ... then rent a house, don't buy. It is no surprise that Jacques let him walk. And I have to wonder if the Wilsons in San Jose (numbers guys themselves) would have pursued Semenov if he had endured a St.Pierrian .865 save percentage behind him last season.
And a tangent: From an Oiler fan's point of view, it's encouraging to see that Penner had a crappy save percentage behind him last season. Which is tough to do playing in front of Giguere, but if you get enough guys rolling the dice some bugger is going to hit a streak of 2s. If he even had an average save percentage behind him it would have shaved about seven goals off of his EV- number. Every bit helps.
There have been a few excellent posts at hockeynumbers lately, and this one is terrific, it shows the save percentage behind the league's players. Just for even strength of course. And Semenov kicks ass in this regard (.982). That means that when he was on the ice at even strength, the Panthers goalies had a save percentage of .982. That's only 2 goals against in limited action. To put that in perspective, when Semenov was on the ice at even strength, the Panther goalies were about three times more likely to make the save than Hasek in his prime would have. 3 x ... damn!.
Personally, I don't believe that skaters have much of an impact on shooting percentage (exception for cherry picking wingers, but even then ... ). But even if you do, I think you can agree that this is just plain luck for our man Alexei. I don't think we'd even get an argument out of his mother or agent on this one.
Personally, I think he's just not very good. I mean obviously he's better than me, he's playing in the NHL and I'm talking about him. But by NHL standards, he just isn't any hell in my opinion. Great in the skills competition, but terrifying in games if you're cheering for the team he's playing for.
I saw him in a NYI/FLA game late last year, and Panther Coach/GM Jacques Martin was terrified of playing him against Smyth/Robitaille/Blake. Whenever I noticed he was rolling Semi out there the one time when he was sure he wouldn't play them (just after they had left the ice). Of course I would never have paid attention if not for the fact he's an ex-Oiler and I was looking for him. But he is an ex-Oiler, I never fully let these guys go it seems. If you care to check, then play spot-the-pattern with the shift chart below. Smyth is the dark red bars and Semi is the green.
Now I'm probably guilty of putting too much stock in one game, but assuming that Semenov was healthy and that this was typical, well that says more than words ever could about Jacques' opinion of Alexei. If you're a defenceman and you're being rolled out there the "shift after Crosby" a whole bunch, and you're not bringing offense, and you're not 20 years old ... then rent a house, don't buy. It is no surprise that Jacques let him walk. And I have to wonder if the Wilsons in San Jose (numbers guys themselves) would have pursued Semenov if he had endured a St.Pierrian .865 save percentage behind him last season.
And a tangent: From an Oiler fan's point of view, it's encouraging to see that Penner had a crappy save percentage behind him last season. Which is tough to do playing in front of Giguere, but if you get enough guys rolling the dice some bugger is going to hit a streak of 2s. If he even had an average save percentage behind him it would have shaved about seven goals off of his EV- number. Every bit helps.
posted by Vic Ferrari at 9/18/2007 09:46:00 pm
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